Nifty Monthly Analysis 8th April – 7th May,2012

Nifty Spot Closed at 5322
Nifty Spot Supports at 5238-5120-5049
Nifty Spot Resistances at 5421-5512-5630
Trend – Mild Bullish.

March was range-bound month for market. After 7 consecutive weeks of sharp upswing, We saw 4 weeks of market consolidation and some correction. Technically, Nifty is bullish above 515 which is also 200 DMA. On 29th march, Nifty hit 5150 but bounced sharply from 200 DMA and now trading with mild bullish at 5322 level. The single most important reason why market is not falling so far is nobody is convinced about upside. Open Interest indicates market is balanced with not too much longs.

Q4 earnings will be better than analyst’s expectations as analysts are extremely bearish on the same line like Q3. RBI will meet again in April for possible rate cut. Although, Rate cut will be slower in 2012 due to high inflation. Fiscal deficit between 5.5%-6% is concern. Stimulus of US and Europe will bring liquidity in India. Overall, Fundamental looks neutral for month of April.

Until and Unless, Nifty Holds 5150 spot on closing basis, The only way to beat the street is to have only one side approach BUY on DIPS. closing below 5150, Market will bearish for Short as well as Medium term. For short term, On Upside, Nifty spot will face resistance at 5421-5512-5630. On Downside, 5218 and then 5120-5049 are key support level. Long term is bullish. One should continue to HOLD/Buy on Decline fundamentally strong scrip’s for 1-2 year time frame. We maintained Bullish term outlook for whole 2011 and we are doing the same for 2012 too.

“Trade with Levels not with Hope”

Regards,
http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis (30th Jan-03rd Feb)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 5204
Nifty Spot Supports @ 5058-4907
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 5270-5400

In 1st 4 weeks of January, Nifty moved around 650 points from bottom of 4588. Momentum indicators are overbought with possibility of some consolidation and correction in near term if fails to sustain above 5200 spot. Nifty spot is standing at crucial resistance at 5200 which is 200 DMA. If Nifty sustains above 5200 zone for 2-3 days, it will reach 5352-5400 in Feb. On downside, Supports @ 5118-5058-4981-4907-4830. Short term trader can take some profit on longs and Hold rest with trailing SL of 5118 on closing basis. Avoid Fresh positional longs or trade with tight SL. Overall, Market is Bullish above 5058 for short term. Whenever there would be correction, it would be time to buy.

Last time, we mentioned Long term investors don’t need to panic at 4500-4600 levels. Long term investors will gain a lot if they HOLD or Buy quality fundamental scrip’s for 1-2 year time frame. Sensex was trading at attractive levels and many stocks were even trading at more attractive levels. Short and Long term are Bullish now. Long term investors should hold fundamentally strong scrip’s and Add on decline. Medium Term bearish below 5400-5500 levels.

“Trade with Levels not with Hope”

Regards,
http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Outlook (26th -30th Dec)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 4714
Nifty Spot Supports @ 4630-4500
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 4840-4970

Last week Nifty recovered some ground from 4539 and closed at 4714. Recovery was more due to short covering from technical oversold zone. Next week would be last week for 2011 which was bad for investors as well as traders. For next week, Nifty spot has support @ 4630. If closes below then earlier low of 4540 possible. If Nifty spot holds 4630, Then recovery till 4840 and even 4930-5010 possible. Nifty to go beyond 4840 needs value buying which need to be seen in last week and early next year. One can Buy Contra longs with Strict SL and below 4630 spot closing avoid short term longs. Medium term is bearish below 5300 weekly spot closing. Short term is neutral. Bearish below 4630 & Bullish above 4840 spot closing. 4480-4380 is long term support.

Endless calls of 4200-4000 target and endless downgrades of India has already come though the lowered earnings of Sensex comes to 12,000-11,000. Long term investors don’t need to panic at this junction. Long term investors will gain a lot if they HOLD or Buy quality fundamental scrips for 1-2 year time frame. Sensex is trading at attractive levels and many stocks are even trading at more attractive levels.

” Trade with Levels not with Hope ”

Regards,
http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Outlook (08th -11th Nov)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 5284
Nifty Spot Supports @ 5187-5061
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 5371-5503

Last week market remained range bound between 5200-5350. Nifty spot made low around 5200 and recovered some ground and closed at 5284. Next week is expected to be volatile as it will have only 3 trading sessions as Monday and Thursday are holidays. Nifty spot index has strong support @ 5200-5180 zone and until and unless it holds, One can continue to hold long positions or/and Buy on Decline. Closing below 5187 spot for 2 days, Trend will become mild negative from neutral and next supports of 5061-4970 will come in picture. On upside 5330-5370 is stiff resistance zone which was formed by the 61.8% of the short term or immediate fall, 50% of the intermediate or medium term fall and 38.2% of the higher term time frame fall. Closing above 5371, next upside target could be around 5500 with trend reversal at 5200.

Short term is side-way with mild positive bias. Medium term is Bearish and long term is bullish and this is the time to accumulate fundamentally strong scrip’s in systematic way for 1-2 year time-frame as this was ongoing consolidation and corrective phase for long term. Risk-Reward ratio for Buyer for long term investment is good.

” Trade with Levels not with Hope ”

Regards,
http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis (03rd-07th Oct)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 4943
Nifty Spot Supports @ 4843-4720
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 5051-5170

Last week market continued with its downtrend and made another low on weekly basis. Nifty Spot made low of 4758 very close to crucial support of 4720. Although market recovered from 4758 to 5034 after Monday steep fall but it closed at 4943 due to profit booking. Technically, Market is still range-bound and sideways with no clear direction. On Downside, Strong supports stands at 4843-4720. On upside, immediate resistance stands at 5051. Closing above for 2 days, It will move towards 5121-5170-5238. As of now, Market is Buy on decline until and unless holds 4720 and Sell on highs until and unless fails to cross and closes above 5170.

Short term is side-way/neutral. Medium term is Bearish and long term is bullish and this is the time to accumulate fundamentally strong scrip’s in systematic way for 1-2 year time-frame as this was ongoing consolidation and corrective phase for long term.

” Trade with Levels not with Hope ”

Regards,

http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis (19th-23rd Sept)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 5084
Nifty Spot Supports @ 4980-4865-4750
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 5180-5268-5400

We didn’t posted Nifty Technical Analysis last week.

last week, Nifty recovered from 4900 levels and closed at 5084 after hitting high of 5143. Petrol price hike of Rs.3 per litre and a 25 bps hike in the interest rate has effected the upward momentum. For Next Week, Nifty is still in side-way zone between 4900-5180. As long as 4980 holds, Nifty can move upwards towards 5180-5268. Once Nifty Spot closes above 5268 for 2-3 days, Trend will change into Bullish and 5400 will come in picture. Below 4980, Next crucial support stands at 4900. Closing below 4900, Next target would be 4800-4750 zone.

Short term is side-way/neutral and medium term are Bearish and long term is bullish and this is the time to accumulate fundamentally strong scrip’s in systematic way for 1-2 year time-frame as this was ongoing consolidation and corrective phase for long term.

” Trade with Levels not with Hope ”

Regards,

http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

Nifty Weekly Technical Analysis (05th-09th Sept)

Nifty Spot Closing Price @ 5040
Nifty Spot Supports @ 4970-4860-4720
Nifty Spot Resistances @ 5120-5250-5336

We didn’t posted Nifty Technical Analysis for last 3 weeks due to technical reason.

For Next Week, Nifty is in neutral zone with negative bias. Overall, still weak and last week rally was pullback rally after big correction. Until and Unless Nifty Spot holds 4970, Chance of pullback till 5120-5250 is possible. 5220-50 will be strong resistance zone. There is 100 point gap between 5230 and 5330 which need to be filled for bullish trend. On Downside, Support stands at 4970-30. Closing below 4930. 4860-4800-4720 possible. On Upside, 1st resistance stands at 5120, Closing above 5220-5250 will come in picture. As per trading strategy, High risk trader can go long until 4970 Holds. Short term will be bullish only if closes above 5120 and then 5250 on closing basis. Now, Both short term and medium term are Bearish and long term is bullish and this is the time to accumulate fundamentally strong scrip’s in systematic way for 1-2 year time-frame as this was ongoing consolidation and corrective phase for long term.

” Trade with Levels not with Hope ”

Regards,
http://www.equityahead.com
http://www.equityahead.net
http://www.equityahead.in

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